Life-Threatening Flooding Expected in East Coast States, West of Hurricane Joaquin (FORECAST)

Setup This Weekend

Setup This Weekend Orange, red and purple shadings illustrate tropical moisture.

(SOURCE)   Relentless onshore winds and potentially unprecedented rainfall will lead to a double whammy of freshwater and oceanwater flooding over the next several days for many states on the U.S. East Coast, despite the fact that all of those states will be well west of Hurricane Joaquin as it follows a track several hundred miles offshore over the Atlantic.

Right through this weekend, a feed of rich tropical moisture from the Caribbean Sea and the western Atlantic will be involved in this soaking setup as a front stalls near the East Coast. This is likely to result in life-threatening and potentially historic rainfall, especially in parts of South Carolina and North Carolina.

Meanwhile, very strong high pressure over eastern Canada will serve to reinforce a large and long-lasting zone of strong winds blowing from the open ocean toward the Eastern Seaboard, resulting in serious coastal flooding, high surf, beach erosion, and some spotty minor damage from the winds themselves.

Here is a look at the latest radar imagery across the East Coast, where bands of rain are expected to persist through much of the weekend.

Current Radar

Current Radar

Current radar across the Southeast and Middle Atlantic, along with any valid flash flood warnings (green outlines), severe thunderstorm warnings (yellow) or tornado warnings (red). Image updates every 5 minutes; refresh your browser for the latest image.

A closer view of the radar shows a more detailed look at what is happening across the Carolinas vicinity, where the most severe flooding is likely to occur.

Carolinas Vicinity Radar

Carolinas Vicinity Radar

A closer view of the radar shows a more detailed view of what’s happening across the Carolinas.

Forecast Impacts

The rain and coastal impacts have already begun, even though Hurricane Joaquin is still churning far away in the Bahamas. Even though Joaquin is very unlikely to make a direct hit on the U.S., rich tropical moisture will still be involved in the soaking setup in the East.

In fact, one computer model Thursday drove the point home when its high-resolution version showed Joaquin veering away from the U.S. while its low-resolution version showed landfall in the Carolinas. The version without a landfall actually forecast much more rainfall for the Southeast.

Here is what you can expect over the next few days:

Rainfall, Flooding: River flooding and flash flooding are both likely in parts of the East. The heaviest rainfall is expected in the Carolinas. A large area of both states can expect at least 6 inches of rain this weekend. Some areas will see 1 to 2 feet of rain.

Rainfall Amounts Last 3 Days

Rainfall Amounts Last 3 Days

A graphic showing total rainfall amounts over the last 3 days, in inches.

In many areas, the ground is already saturated due to heavy rain that has fallen over the past 10 days. Some of this rain brought significant flooding in its own right Tuesday to parts of Virginia, New York, North Carolina, Maine, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

The amount of additional rainfall that will fall over such a large area in such a relatively short time will lead to widespread flooding, some of it severe enough to flood homes and businesses, close roads and even destroy property. In rugged terrain, particularly over the western Carolinas, landslides and debris flows are likely.

Flash flood watches have been issued by the National Weather Service from Maryland southward into most of Virginia, the Carolinas, northeastern Georgia and eastern Tennessee. The National Weather Service office in Greer, South Carolina, stated in their forecast discussion Thursday afternoon that a “historic and potentially life-threatening rainfall event is expected this weekend.”

Inland Flood Alerts

Inland Flood Alerts

The latest flood watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service across the region. These alerts pertain to freshwater flooding resulting from heavy rainfall.

Rainfall Forecast: Through Monday

Rainfall Forecast: Through Monday

Forecast rainfall, in inches, through Monday. Much of this rain will fall between now and Sunday evening.

Increasing Winds: The gradient between lower pressure near the stalled front and the strong area of high pressure to the north will maintain a zone of persistent strong winds from the western Atlantic Ocean into the Mid-Atlantic states.

The strong winds will impact coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic right through this weekend.

Coastal Impacts: The winds will continue to contribute to serious coastal flooding, high surf, and beach erosion along the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Coastal Flood Alerts

Coastal Flood Alerts

A look at the coastal flood watches, warnings and advisories issued by the National Weather Service along the East Coast. These pertain to flooding caused by seawater pushed onshore by the wind, i.e., storm surge.

Tidal flooding was observed on Friday from parts of New Jersey, down through the Virginia Tidewater and to the coastal Carolinas. Charleston, South Carolina, which has been inundated with quite a bit of flooding through late September, experienced more flash flooding on Thursday and Friday as bands of heavy rain pinwheeled through the state.

The National Weather Service has issued coastal flood warnings for the Atlantic coastline from the New Jersey shore south to Virginia Beach, including the beaches of Delaware and Maryland, and for areas surrounding the lower Chesapeake Bay.

According to the warning bulletins, major coastal flooding may occur along the Atlantic coast of the Delmarva Peninsula as well as the Atlantic-facing coastlines of Cape May and Atlantic counties in southern New Jersey. This means flooding may be severe enough not only to flood numerous roads in coastal areas, but also to flood homes and businesses.

Major coastal flooding may also affect portions of the Virginia Tidewater, including the Hampton Roads metropolitan area encompassing Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Portsmouth, Newport News, and other nearby cities in southeastern Virginia.

Coastal flood advisories have also been issued as far north as Massachusetts and as far south as Florida due to the risk of minor coastal flooding.

Timing of the Rain

This will be a prolonged heavy rain event that will result in rainfall totals over 6 inches over a large area and some locations will likely measure well over a foot of rainfall through Monday. The soil is already saturated in many of the areas expecting heavy rainfall and may lead to dangerous flooding. Landslides and debris flows are also a threat this weekend.

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2 thoughts on “Life-Threatening Flooding Expected in East Coast States, West of Hurricane Joaquin (FORECAST)

  1. This piece of news alert in relation to historic floods in Carolina, US , in the first week of October 2015 was circulated about 8 days back by this Vedic astrology writer though the prediction of this writer was in existence since June last:- October 2015 has just begun. News reports suggest that a powerful hurricane Joaquin is wanting to lash US coastal areas. It seems concerned officials in US have advised residents in places likely to be affected to be in preparedness. In this regard , this Vedic astrology writer wants to agree with the concerned officials while emphasizing that astrologically speaking, it is advisable to be fully prepared to face the hurricane Joaquin in coming days in US coastal areas or nearby States which usually has an impact. This writer’s prediction about danger from strong storms or sea tsunamis in vulnerable areas near some islands located near sea to come in October 2015 was published in article – Total lunar eclipse of 28 September 2015 and world – in the Summer 2015 ( June) issue of The Astrologer’s Notebook , a quarterly publication from North Port , Florida. Just reproducing the related parts from the article : -“During second half of 2015 , among other things , dangers from sea or in sea like strong storms or sea tsunamis could be likely in vulnerable regions. Power dams and electricity could bring to surface substantial concern. Natural calamities such as floods , landslides and earthquake could sadden.” The prediction further goes in the same article : “ Some islands located near the sea may need to take some precaution .Though second half of 2015 seems to be causing concern , months October and November of 2015 are likely to trigger many unwelcome things out of above mentioned aspects or areas of life”.
    The unique contribution by way of appropriate , accurate and well- timed contribution of this writer in alerting the concerned people deserves to be noted for reward.

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